The International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Well they should know, shouldn't they?
From Page Number 17 - V Conclusion
"...our prediction of small further increases in world oil production comes at the expense of a near doubling, permanently, of real oil prices over the coming decade. This is uncharted territory for the world economy, which has never experienced such prices for more than a few months. Our current model of the effect of such prices on GDP is based on historical data, and indicates perceptible but small and transitory output effects. But we suspect that there must be a pain barrier, a level of oil prices above which the effects on GDP becomes nonlinear, convex. [in other words - GDP crashes]. We also suspect that the assumption that technology is independent of the availability of fossil fuels may be inappropriate, so that a lack of availability of oil may have aspects of a negative technology shock. In that case the macroeconomic effects of binding resource constraints [availability of resources - resilience of the environment] could be much larger, more persistent, and they would extend well beyond the oil sector. Studying these issues further will be a priority of our future research."
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